Goldman Sachs predicted that copper prices would see a limited decline during 2026, after the metal's recent record highs, due to a continued global supply surplus, despite strong support expected from long-term structural demand.
The bank's research indicated that copper and other industrial metals, such as aluminum and lithium, have benefited this year from declining interest rates, a weak US dollar, improved expectations for Chinese economic growth, supply chain disruptions, and increased spending on strategic sectors, most notably artificial intelligence and energy.
Despite copper hitting a record high of $11,771 a ton in December, Goldman Sachs expects excess supply to limit prices' ability to stabilize above the $11,000 mark during 2026, especially with Chinese demand for refined copper slowing at the end of 2025.
It is estimated that the price of copper on the London Metal Exchange will move within a range of $10,000 to $11,000 per ton over the next year, with an expected average of around $10,710 in the first half of 2026.
Conversely, the bank expects strong growth in global demand for electricity grids and energy infrastructure, supported by investments in artificial intelligence and defense, to prevent prices from falling sharply.
Despite the expected surplus in the global copper market during 2025, limited growth in mine supply, along with increasing demand from the energy sector, may contribute to a greater balance between supply and demand during 2026, with expectations of a return to the upward trend in prices in subsequent years.
Among the factors that could support copper prices in the future is the possibility of the United States imposing tariffs on imports of refined copper, which could prompt importers to accelerate stockpiling operations before any official decisions are implemented, thus temporarily boosting demand.
In the long term, Goldman Sachs expects the price of copper to reach around $15,000 per ton by 2035, exceeding average market expectations.
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